Iran vs. America & Israel: What Happened, What Will Happen
Iran-US-Israel Conflict: Abstract
The conflict traces from the 1953 CIA/MI6-backed coup ousting Iran's democratic PM Mosaddegh over oil nationalization, empowering Shah Pahlavi as a US/Israel ally until the 1979 Islamic Revolution under Khomeini ("Great/Little Satan"). Escalation via hostage crisis, sanctions, nuclear tensions (JCPOA 2015, Trump exit 2018), proxy wars, to Operation "Epic Fury"/"Roaring Lion" (Feb 2026): US/Israel strikes kill Khamenei, target nukes/IRGC amid Kurdish incursions and Iranian retaliation. Oil spikes; scenarios range from regime collapse to regional/nuclear war, reshaping global power.
Past – What Happened Before?
Everything truly began in August 1953, when Iran's first democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, was removed through a coup d'état. This coup was organized through a secret operation called Ajax, coordinated by the intelligence services of the United States of America and the United Kingdom. The reason for this operation was Mosaddegh's nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, previously controlled by the British through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. The result of the coup was the strengthening of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's power, who became an ally of the United States throughout his rule.
The United States supported him, providing economic aid, weapons, and political support. During this period, cooperation between Israel and Iran developed, with Iran being the second country in the Middle East to recognize the existence of the state of Israel in 1948. Another important event with lasting impact was the 1967 delivery by the US of a 5 MW research reactor through the "Atoms for Peace" program. This program promoted the use of nuclear energy for civilian purposes, and the reaffirmation of using nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes was made through the signing of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970, by which Iran officially committed not to pursue the construction of nuclear weapons.
This period was considered the most prosperous in Iran's history from an economic and cultural standpoint, but not politically. After the coup and the shah's total takeover of power in 1953, a period of strengthening his power through authoritarian control followed, removing any political opposition by force, with the help of the SAVAK secret services, created in 1957 with CIA support. These handled the "dirty work" by forcibly removing and assassinating opponents, using the army and Imperial Guard to suppress protests.
In this context, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 emerged, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, who was in exile in France since 1964. Upon his return and takeover of leadership, the Islamic Republic of Iran was created, with a theocratic anti-Western regime. During the Revolution, Iranian students supporting the Islamic Revolution occupied the US embassy and took 90 hostages, later reduced to 52 after some releases. The reason was the extradition of the shah, who was in the US for medical treatment after fleeing Iran.
In response, the United States broke all diplomatic ties with Iran on April 7, 1980, imposed total economic sanctions, and froze Iranian assets in US banks worth $12 billion. A few days later, on April 24, they launched a hostage rescue operation called Eagle Claw, which failed catastrophically. This hostage crisis ended after 444 days, on January 20, 1981, immediately after President Reagan's inauguration.
After taking power, Khomeini positioned himself against the United States of America and Israel, calling them the "Great Satan" and the "Little Satan." The regime broke all ties with Israel, closing the Israeli embassy and handing it over to the Palestine Liberation Organization.
In the 1980s, Iran's hatred toward the US and Israel intensified and prolonged, one reason being the support given by the United States to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). During this period, Iran began supporting anti-Israeli armed movements, especially Hezbollah. In response, the US adopted a broader sanctions regime, the official reason being support for terrorism and the missile program.
Continuing into the 1990s-2000s, the main concern and point of conflict for the United States and Israel was Iran's nuclear program and the fear that Iran might develop nuclear weapons. In response, the US pushed for a harsh international sanctions regime, while Israel considered military strikes on nuclear facilities, sabotage, and assassinations of Iranian scientists.
In 2015, Iran and the major powers signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, under which Iran accepted strict restrictions and nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief.
In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew the US from the deal and reimposed severe sanctions on Iran. The main reason cited by Trump was that the deal did not permanently limit nuclear weapons development and that IAEA inspections were deemed insufficient. After this, Iran gradually began exceeding the deal's limits. Tensions peaked in January 2020 when the US assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Quds Force, in Baghdad, and in retaliation, Iran attacked US troop bases in Iraq with missiles.
Iran continues to support anti-Israeli groups in the region, leading to a "shadow war" between Israel and Iran, culminating in the Hamas-Israel war and confrontations with various Iran-backed armed groups, bringing us to the present.
Present – What Is Happening Now?
After a failed US-Iran negotiation attempt lasting several weeks, it ended with the launch of a military operation on February 28, 2026, by the US and Israel. Prior to this, the United States built up a military presence in the region and Europe, deploying an air bridge over several weeks, plus bringing the attack group of the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) aircraft carrier from Asia to the Arabian Sea. The reason invoked by the US for Operation "Epic Fury" and the Israeli operation "Roaring Lion" was Iran's imminent nuclear and ballistic threat. The greatest determination of the US and Israel is to overthrow the Tehran regime. This motivation also stems from the 12-day Iran-Israel confrontations in June 2025, which prompted Washington to mobilize the world's most advanced 7 bombers and 14 conventional bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear industry, though it appears unsuccessful.
In response to the attacks, Iran began attacking all military bases in the region and Israel, but not only – ballistic missiles were also directed at Cyprus, intercepted by NATO, and they attacked Azerbaijan and all Gulf countries with kamikaze drones. This indiscriminate behavior by Iran shows desperation. From the first moments of the initial Israeli bombings, Khamenei was killed – the supposedly most protected man in Iran, prepared his entire life for such a war, was eliminated immediately.
Currently, Iran is in a very difficult position, without air defense, with a fleet immobilized and nearly completely destroyed, most leaders killed, and the regime's power infrastructure nearly destroyed. However, it still has missiles and drones and nothing to lose. Regarding the US and Israel, they are leading the fight but at a higher cost than expected. Their biggest problems are anti-drone and ballistic defense, as it is very costly to shoot down drones costing up to $50,000 with missiles over $1 million, and ballistic missiles are not easy to intercept, especially in large numbers. Another aspect that cost the Americans 3 F-15 fighter jets is the fog of war – where there is war, chaos appears.
As global consequences of the war, oil prices have already risen due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing tensions elsewhere, and a growing need for armament.
Future – What Will Happen?
It is unknown what can happen from now on. As everyone should know, with a war, you know when it started, but not when it will end or how. The best example is the war in Ukraine: at the Russian invasion, everyone expected it to fall in 3 days, then 3 weeks, and we are now in the 4th year. However, we can outline some scenarios to know how to position ourselves if one of them or a similar one is fulfilled.
The first scenario is that in a few weeks, Iran runs out of missiles, and the US and Israel destroy all military and power targets, giving Iranians the chance to revolt and take power, restoring good Iran-US & Israel relations.
The second, less optimistic scenario, is one where all Arab states intervene militarily in Iran, or the US supports the Kurds to invade from Iraq. Either leads to a prolonged regional war and lower chances of regime change, as people are less willing to change the current regime amid a country invasion.
The third scenario is one where the Iranian regime decides to attack nuclearly with 60% enriched uranium, use a dirty bomb, leading to a much too dangerous precedent for the future and a much bloodier war.
One thing is certain: we are heading toward a repositioning of global powers. The US wants to maintain its place as the sole world power, China wants to take it, the European Union wants to become independent in all respects and behave as a world power, and Russia is fighting to remain a power – it's succeeding too little, but it doesn't give up.
Iran is a point on the board; how the war ends will decide who gets that point. The question is: what is the required number of points to win?
